The path to resilience in a challenging macro-financial landscape

Speech by Ms Andréa M Maechler, Deputy General Manager, Bank for International Settlements, at the 19th BCBS-FSI High-level Meeting for Africa Cape Town, South Africa, 14 February 2024.

The global economy is at an inflection point, as the most synchronised and most significant monetary policy tightening in recent memory nears the end. Disinflation is largely on track, and there is a good chance of a soft, or softish, landing. But inflationary pressures may re-emerge. And the current slowdown in growth may still turn out to be deeper and more protracted than expected. If such risks materialise, capital flows to emerging market economies may retrench. Some, like those in sub-Saharan Africa, may be particularly vulnerable given their high levels of debt held by foreign bondholders and commercial banks. Policymakers will need to navigate these difficult waters, including by enhancing banking supervision.