Annex accompanying the speech
Thank you, Christa. It is wonderful to be with you here on the University of Virginia's beautiful campus. This is my first visit here as an adult. As a child, I was fortunate enough to be able to attend the commencement ceremony of my aunt and uncle, who received their doctoral degrees from UVA several decades ago. My family and I are grateful to the University of Virginia for all the educational opportunities it has afforded us over the years. I look forward to connecting with many of the exceptional students and faculty during my visit.
As a member of the Federal Reserve Board, I always find it a pleasure to hear from people in communities across the country and to share some views of my own. At the Fed, I am committed to pursuing the best policy to achieve the dual-mandate goals given to us by Congress of maximum employment and price stability. Today, I would like to share with you my outlook for the economy, including some international comparisons of productivity and inflation, and offer my views on U.S. monetary policy.
Broadly, I view the economy as being in a good position. Inflation has substantially eased from its peak in mid-2022, though core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Unemployment remains historically low, but the labor market is no longer overheated. Economic growth has been robust this year, and I forecast the expansion will continue. Looking ahead, I remain confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent objective, even if the path is occasionally bumpy. Meanwhile, I see employment risks as weighted to the downside, but those risks appear to have diminished somewhat in recent months.
Inflation
Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has eased notably from a peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released last week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October. Core PCE prices-which exclude the volatile food and energy categories-increased 2.8 percent, down from a peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.