John Iannis Mourmouras: Global risks and prospects for 2019

Keynote speech by Professor John Iannis Mourmouras, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Greece, at the OMFIF-CAMRI Panel "Trade, China and Brexit: Global Economic Challenges for 2019", Singapore, 25 January 2019.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

1. Introduction

Dear Professors,

Distinguished panellists,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I would like to thank the Centre for Asset Management Research and Investments at the National University of Singapore and OMFIF for the kind invitation and say that I am very happy to be back in Singapore. I was here in March 2016 upon an invitation from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy to discuss the role of negative interest rates in terms of the transmission of monetary policy and its impact. Today, my focus is on the main risks for the financial markets this year, which could result in heightened uncertainty across the global economy, prompting certain Cassandras to foretell a global economic downturn and even a recession.

The synchronized global expansion of 2017 gave way to a disparate growth picture in 2018. Growth in the United States has remained solid (2.9%), bolstered by fiscal stimulus.