Daniel Mminele: Macroeconomic policy and financial risks - from 2017 into 2018

Address by Mr Daniel Mminele, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the Sixth Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Summer Macro Investor Conference, Johannesburg, 24 November 2017.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Introduction

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning.

Thank you for the invitation to deliver the keynote address at this sixth Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Summer Macro Investor Conference. 

The end of the year is upon us. No later than yesterday did the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) conclude its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for the year. It is around this time when many analysts and forecasters publish their respective outlooks for the year ahead, complete with 'baseline scenarios' and a list of the major risks thereto. But to what extent will these risks differ from those that most of us flagged as the biggest threats 12 months ago? Does the way in which economic agents and policymakers responded to those threats hold lessons for the future? Or do we face as many uncertainties now as we did last year?  As American author David Levithan once said: "The mistake is thinking that there can be an antidote to the uncertainty." We have to strive to achieve the best we can under the circumstances.