Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook

Key takeaways

• Global supply chain disruptions ("bottlenecks") have been easing gradually, albeit unevenly across sectors and regions. However, they remain significant relatively to the historical norm.
• The intricacies of today's global value chains account for the persistence and severe macroeconomic impact of bottlenecks in spite of their recent easing. Highly concentrated sectors such as semiconductors are prime examples.
• While continued easing of bottlenecks – which should help moderate inflation – is the most likely scenario, there are upside risks to inflation from more protracted bottleneck-induced disruptions. Nor can new bottlenecks be ruled out.

Online appendix